Tag Archives: scenarios

4 Quick and Clean Scenarios for the New Year

Now that both feet are firmly planted in the New Year, it’s time to share our 2017 “Quick and Clean” scenarios for conflict and security.  Using the quick and clean scenario framework from the 4 Steps model (see below the line), we have quickly developed four scenarios about conflict and security looking out over the […]

4 Steps to the Future for the New Year

Happy New Year! Now that we’ve hit our shiny New Year, it’s a great time to give a shout out for my book, 4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight.  I published 4 Steps last year as an easy-to-use guide for generating foresight and I’m very grateful for the […]

International Security Scenarios

Earlier this year the World Economic Forum put out a set of three original scenarios forecasting possible futures for the international security landscape.  This was an attempt by WEF to use futures thinking to explore the international security environment in 2030.  I haven’t conducted a count yet, but it feels to me like more and […]

How do *you* think people will be using blockchain technology in 2025?

Since I last posted anything about blockchain, the buzz, the bombast, and the bureaucratic committees have been metastasizing at a rapid pace.  Research reports are being written, lectures are being given, government think tanks are being organized. I’m still interested in what you think.  More importantly, I’m interested in what you imagine people will do with this […]

Defense Futures: The Booklet (version 1)

I have combined two previous posts, Defense Futures: Why All of Our Scenarios Should Be Disruptive, and Defense Futures, Part II: Sampling Disruptive Scenarios, into a single document, Defense Futures 2016 v1.0.  The content is the same as those presented in the original posts, and the material is now formatted to be printed as a […]

Defense Futures, Part II: Sampling Disruptive Scenarios

A previous post, Defense Futures: Why All of Our Scenarios Should Be Disruptive, I wrote about the need to have our long-term DoD scenarios be “disruptive.”  In this context, disruptive scenarios should challenge core assumptions about the security environment and about how we are organized to provide it.  As the earlier post points out, the […]

Type A Scenarios: The Challenge of Continuity

In one of yesterday’s posts I introduced the scenario approach used in the 4 Steps model, which is based on the three very basic patterns of change we see in the world.  Those patterns are continuity, incremental change, and abrupt change, and by varying them just a bit, we create four basic “types” of scenarios: […]

4 Scenario Types: Creating Scenarios with Different Patterns of Change

As I have said on previous occasions, scenarios are a workhorse method for futurists.  Because they are so important to a lot of foresight work, over the years practitioners have developed a wide variety of methods for developing scenarios.  While I have previously introduced the TOCS-driven approach that I developed (see link, below), today I […]

Repo No More? How Blockchain May Spell the End of the Repo Man

Three of the most talked about “disruptive” future technologies today are the Internet of Things (IoT), automation, and blockchains.  Individually, each portends great changes in how we organize, what we can do, and how we can do it.  Extrapolating what each of these developments might do individually is one thing (what we’d call “linear thinking”); […]

How to Work Up to Scenarios for Your Organization

Foresight professionals like ourselves typically work with clients on scenarios in a project-based sense, i.e. scenarios are the output of formal projects with lots of “data” and rigorous process.  While that is true, we do employ what we might call “scenario thinking” all the time and in more informal ways.  By scenario thinking I mean […]