Tag Archives: frameworks

Anticipating Types of Machine-Driven Conflict

The White House recently held the first of several workshops on AI, and in it experts discussed some of the emerging legal and ethical ramifications of machine learning.  As machines become embedded ever more deeply into our everyday systems and processes for making decisions, how will we feel about being denied, flagged, or discriminated against […]

Three Narrative Realms for Machines in Conflict & Security

In a previous post I wrote about starting to view the world in terms of three “ecosystems”: natural, human social, and machine.  This approach should be useful for anyone wanting to think more critically about the future of machines in general and about human-machine interactions in particular. In a similar fashion, one could take a […]

Thinking About the Past and Futures of Artillery

A couple of days ago we were having a discussion about the extent to which the artillery branch of the military has changed its frames of reference and its operating concepts in the last couple of decades.  In the course of discussing this, we started comparing the extent to which artillery has changed since, say, […]

Type A Scenarios: The Challenge of Continuity

In one of yesterday’s posts I introduced the scenario approach used in the 4 Steps model, which is based on the three very basic patterns of change we see in the world.  Those patterns are continuity, incremental change, and abrupt change, and by varying them just a bit, we create four basic “types” of scenarios: […]

No One Tool Does Everything, No Process is a Panacea

Everyone is familiar with the saying, “If all you have is a hammer, then everything starts to look like a nail.” This is no less true when it comes to management consulting, where consultants often specialize in a particular approach or may have a limited repertoire to offer.  You also see something of this each […]

How Do You Handle an Uncertain Future (with limited resources)?

Amidst the current cacophony about the rise of robots and the future of labor there has emerged the notion of “hybrid” approaches for work that combine human and machine labor. We’re starting to see more and more articles referencing these hybrid approaches and suggesting that they are the future of work and labor. While each […]

Threat Assessments and Framing Emerging Issues

The US Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, presented a statement on the US Intelligence Community’s worldwide threat assessment to the Senate two days ago, and the paper itself has been making the rounds on the Web.  In the statement the DNI references broad topical issues like the IoT and AI, as well as regional […]

Complexity and Theory in IR

As someone trained to place theories of change and stability (TOCS) at the center of futures research, as well as someone taught the importance of seeing the world through the lenses of systems and complexity, I am simultaneously excited and conflicted about the recent post “Crude Thinking – 7 Ways of Dealing with the Complex […]

A Spectrum of Scenario Use

This past week we were in the (unseasonably mild) United Kingdom working out of our Oxford office and attending a conference at the Warwick Business School on innovations in scenario use. Admittedly it was a fairly futures-geeky conference that was designed for an academic audience concerned with “scenario planning,” that particular approach to developing and […]

3 Responses to Change: A Framework for Exploring Implications

One of the methods that we like to use a lot is a three responses to change model.  Similar to a traditional stakeholder analysis, the 3 Responses framework groups current and potential future stakeholders according to how they are likely to respond to the idea or possibility of change. The first group are the Resistors […]