Tag Archives: conflict futures

Blurring Reality in the South China Sea

A piece yesterday noted that Taiwan asked Google to blur its satellite images of one of its islets in the South China Sea.  This is not a surprising thing, and it reminds us how much we are becoming dependent on – or simply impact by – the various layers of digitally mediated reality. One has […]

International Security Scenarios

Earlier this year the World Economic Forum put out a set of three original scenarios forecasting possible futures for the international security landscape.  This was an attempt by WEF to use futures thinking to explore the international security environment in 2030.  I haven’t conducted a count yet, but it feels to me like more and […]

Anticipating Types of Machine-Driven Conflict

The White House recently held the first of several workshops on AI, and in it experts discussed some of the emerging legal and ethical ramifications of machine learning.  As machines become embedded ever more deeply into our everyday systems and processes for making decisions, how will we feel about being denied, flagged, or discriminated against […]

Futures Fiction: Exploring #CrowdSeas Futures Through Fiction

As the first part of our #CrowdedSeas project exploring the futures of maritime security in Asia, Scott Cheney-Peters and I have been working on a short story fiction piece set in a mid-term future.  The first section of this story, Hope Renewed, was just published on the Project for the Study of the 21st Century […]

Three Narrative Realms for Machines in Conflict & Security

In a previous post I wrote about starting to view the world in terms of three “ecosystems”: natural, human social, and machine.  This approach should be useful for anyone wanting to think more critically about the future of machines in general and about human-machine interactions in particular. In a similar fashion, one could take a […]

The Tactical vs. Strategic Implications of Automation

Swarms of autonomous drones patrol the skies and waters near contested spaces.  Human warfighters accompanied by support robots, supply chains of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles, and directly aided by cheap ISR drones.  High endurance drones crisscrossing the oceans and skies in a global network of autonomous coverage. The above represents one fairly common image of […]

Technologies Empowering Others and Risking US Dominance

A recent article in Joint Force Quarterly, “Cheap Technology Will Challenge U.S. Tactical Dominance,” highlights a number of technologies that the author suggests will enable smaller states (and, he admits, some non-state actors) to disrupt the tactical dominance that the US has enjoyed in recent decades. The key technologies that the author identifies are: Additive […]

Scan Hit: Montage and Open-Source Reporting

There is a great scan hit* in the recent article, ” Montage – the next generation in war reporting.”  Montage is an open-source tool designed to let journalists and other individuals “search for videos of a specific event, tag those videos to identify people, places, or things, and collaboratively analyze that information to find out […]

A Clash of Powers: Competing Over Governance and Problem-Solving in the Future

My co-author in the #CrowdedSeas work, @SCheneyPeters, shared an article last week from The Guardian, “Thailand disrupts attempts to launch migrant rescue ship operation.”  The article related how the private charity organization, Migrant Offshore Aid Station, which runs search-and-rescue operations for migrants and refugees at sea, was repeatedly thwarted in its attempts to receive and […]

Defense Futures: The Booklet (version 1)

I have combined two previous posts, Defense Futures: Why All of Our Scenarios Should Be Disruptive, and Defense Futures, Part II: Sampling Disruptive Scenarios, into a single document, Defense Futures 2016 v1.0.  The content is the same as those presented in the original posts, and the material is now formatted to be printed as a […]