Tag Archives: 4 Steps

4 Steps to the Future for the New Year

Happy New Year! Now that we’ve hit our shiny New Year, it’s a great time to give a shout out for my book, 4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight.  I published 4 Steps last year as an easy-to-use guide for generating foresight and I’m very grateful for the […]

Type A Scenarios: The Challenge of Continuity

In one of yesterday’s posts I introduced the scenario approach used in the 4 Steps model, which is based on the three very basic patterns of change we see in the world.  Those patterns are continuity, incremental change, and abrupt change, and by varying them just a bit, we create four basic “types” of scenarios: […]

4 Scenario Types: Creating Scenarios with Different Patterns of Change

As I have said on previous occasions, scenarios are a workhorse method for futurists.  Because they are so important to a lot of foresight work, over the years practitioners have developed a wide variety of methods for developing scenarios.  While I have previously introduced the TOCS-driven approach that I developed (see link, below), today I […]

Trends vs. Emerging Issues: What is the Difference?

When it comes to thinking about the future, just about everyone will at some point come around to talking about trends.  A trend speaks to changes that we have been measuring, which means there’s normally quantitative data points (doesn’t that make everyone feel better J), and we can’t but help extrapolate into the future whatever […]

Writing a Book on Foresight

As anyone who has taught a class or run a training workshop knows, having to teach others something very often requires you to reflect more deeply on your own expertise.  What is most important for others to learn?  What really are the key concepts and intellectual tensions in my field?  And perhaps most importantly, how […]

Daily Habits for Better Foresight

Once people find out what I do they are usually keen on learning how I do this “futurist thing.” Not counting the folks who are really hoping to learn how to make better probabilistic forecasts (see instead, Superforecasting), most are genuinely curious as to what an academically trained futurist does with his day. I touch […]

4 Steps to the Future

I am pleased to announce that my new book, 4 Steps to the Future, is now available on Amazon.com!  The book is intended as a field guide for managers, providing them the process and tools to conduct their own basic foresight process within their own organization.  It was fun to write and I’m looking forward […]