Earlier this year the World Economic Forum put out a set of three original scenarios forecasting possible futures for the international security landscape.  This was an attempt by WEF to use futures thinking to explore the international security environment in 2030.  I haven’t conducted a count yet, but it feels to me like more and […]

The White House recently held the first of several workshops on AI, and in it experts discussed some of the emerging legal and ethical ramifications of machine learning.  As machines become embedded ever more deeply into our everyday systems and processes for making decisions, how will we feel about being denied, flagged, or discriminated against […]

As the first part of our #CrowdedSeas project exploring the futures of maritime security in Asia, Scott Cheney-Peters and I have been working on a short story fiction piece set in a mid-term future.  The first section of this story, Hope Renewed, was just published on the Project for the Study of the 21st Century […]

In a previous post I wrote about starting to view the world in terms of three “ecosystems”: natural, human social, and machine.  This approach should be useful for anyone wanting to think more critically about the future of machines in general and about human-machine interactions in particular. In a similar fashion, one could take a […]

Swarms of autonomous drones patrol the skies and waters near contested spaces.  Human warfighters accompanied by support robots, supply chains of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles, and directly aided by cheap ISR drones.  High endurance drones crisscrossing the oceans and skies in a global network of autonomous coverage. The above represents one fairly common image of […]

As much as it pains me to say it, “the future” doesn’t belong to futurists. A colleague recently had an unfortunately bad reaction to a comment I posted about an article they shared.  My comment was short and based more in my long-lived frustration with how “futures” gets conveyed on most media.  Overall, the piece […]

A recent article in Joint Force Quarterly, “Cheap Technology Will Challenge U.S. Tactical Dominance,” highlights a number of technologies that the author suggests will enable smaller states (and, he admits, some non-state actors) to disrupt the tactical dominance that the US has enjoyed in recent decades. The key technologies that the author identifies are: Additive […]

Just up, a podcast I recorded with the National Association of Workforce Boards at their annual conference this past March.  It turned out quite well, if I do say so myself!

Over the years I’ve had many people ask me why our firm wasn’t doing some cool big picture, long-term, foresight work for [name the issue in obvious need of big picture, long-term help].  My short answer is usually that we’ve never been approached, or that our conversations with leaders in that area have never gone […]

The Advanced Strategies course for the Foresight Program at the University of Houston is coming to a close now that the semester is ending.  Of the various concepts we discussed with students in the class, one was Collins’ “hedgehog concept” for organizations.  Most of the students of course enjoyed Collins’ famous book, Good to Great, […]