Category Methods

3 Responses to Change: A Framework for Exploring Implications

One of the methods that we like to use a lot is a three responses to change model.  Similar to a traditional stakeholder analysis, the 3 Responses framework groups current and potential future stakeholders according to how they are likely to respond to the idea or possibility of change. The first group are the Resistors […]

Foresight vs. Planning Horizons, part 2

Last week I was looking at the distinction between your planning/action horizon and your foresight/thought horizon.  Riffing a bit now on the horizons diagrams (see Figure 1), we can perhaps play with different shapes to the cone of uncertainty to illustrate the different ranges of potential futures an organization might be facing.  It could also […]

Foresight vs. Planning Horizons

One way to think about foresight within the context of your normal planning activities is to see foresight and planning as having two distinct “horizons.”  Your planning horizon is what we might call your “action” horizon; it is the time frame across which you are willing to commit to specific actions.  In contrast, your foresight […]

Lum’s Formula for Futures

[Note: this is a quick and early draft of a longer treatment that will be published later] Theory-Driven Scenario Development A recent client workshop had us engaging a number of in-house researchers on the basics of futures studies and our approaches to developing foresight.  The workshop itself was a very quick scenario workshop, in which […]

S-curving Defense and Security Sources

Clients will often be surprised at the breadth of ideas about emerging issues that academically-trained and professional futurists have on hand at any one time.  This is, generally speaking, the result of most of us engaging in the habitual practice of scanning, which is simply reading through lots and lots and lots of stuff on […]

Scenarios: Are You Using them the Right Way?

“Scenarios” are a very common tool used by organizations of all types to structure their thinking about the future.  Despite their growing ubiquity in industry, government, and civil society, or perhaps because of it, there are many different – and sometimes conflicting – opinions as to what scenarios are, how they should be used, and […]

4 Relationships in Foresight

We recently used a simple yet useful method for generating forecasts with a client that was interested in addressing the futures of the environment and was also interested in conducting both exploratory and normative futures (i.e., they were interested in both analytic foresight work as well as normative futures work.  See my earlier post on […]

Verge: a General Practice Framework for Futures Work

Note: this post was originally published on 8/1/2014. [Note: this piece was previously published in the April edition of the APF Compass, the monthly membership publication of the Association of Professional Futurists] Introduction Put simply, Verge is a way to frame and explore changes in the world.  Originally intended as an alternative taxonomy for environmental […]

Surveying the Landscape of Economic Change

Note: this was originally published on 4/2/2014. In most of our work, and particularly for our original research and content, there are one or two key frameworks that help us organize and make sense of the dynamics we (and clients) are observing and experiencing.  In the Third Era one such framework is the nested view […]