Anticipating Actor Adaptation to Disruption

An article this morning in Claims Journal online entitled, “Autonomous Cars’ Effect on Auto, Cyber Insurance” reminds us that one of the reasons we sometimes get forecasts wrong is that we fail to anticipate how changes – no matter how disruptive – inevitably feedback and drive attempts to adapt to the change.

The impact of self-driving vehicles on auto insurance is a good example.  My of us intuitively expect traditional auto insurance to take a big hit, and apparently the industry experts do as well.  But this, of course, does not equal the end of P&C insurance players; they will simply follow their natural business self-interest and adapt by developing new lines of business.  As in other historical examples, even the very technology that is creating the disruption offers creative companies opportunities for new products and services.

In this case, insurers are now looking forward to things like insurance for vehicle hacking incidents and an expansion of commercial auto insurance for fleets of self-driving cars.

Never underestimate the human will to survive and to thrive.


“Autonomous Cars’ Effect on Auto, Cyber Insurance”

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