We’ve just released our new report on emerging issues for the futures of conflict and security. Intended as a resource for those working on conflict & security foresight projects, the report provides a multilayered inventory of potential emerging issues that can be used to help build out forecasting and scenario projects. The report is meant to provide important input into rigorous foresight projects and is neither a review of current or expected conflict hot spots nor an exercise in trend extrapolation.
The report was built partly through surveys of VFS’s network of defense and security professionals and partly through our own work. Some of the emerging issues appeared last year in the Global Security Forecast 2014 intensive demonstration project while others emerged in recent scenarios we developed recently to support innovation work for the US Pacific Fleet.
The report also provides a good introduction to the concept of “emerging issues”, something that is central to futures studies and a critical component of any rigorous foresight project.
Emerging issue: “any new technology under development, potential future public policy issue, or new concept or idea that might be fringe thinking now but which could mature and develop into the mainstream; usually encountered as “weak signals” in the present.”